until florida our new poll has president obama up. ohio we still have the president holding his lead. 51% to 45%. and in a recent poll of likely voters in virginia, the president was up 2 points, a statistical dead heed. nbc news has its own poll coming out monday morning. look at the ad spending in these three states. $190 million in florida, $195 million in ohio, $150 million in virginia. more than half a billion collectively in the mega states of flohva. they're not just spending money there, they're spending time. from april 1st through election day, the president will have sited the sunshine state 14 times, for mitt romney, it's 16. president obama will have made 19 stops in ohio, governor romney will be there 21 times. and romney will make 14 visits to virginia, 13 stops for the president. so let's get to the special flohva panel. adam smith is the political editor, chris booker from our affiliate wcmh in columbus, and larry sabado, editor of the crystal ball blog. larry, let me start with you. the state of virginia, last time i